We can see the effect in the average results of the hit/stand decisions when you have hard 16 and the dealer shows a 7 or higher. We’ll just look at two-card hard 16s here, but the story is the same for most 16s of three or more cards.
16 vs. 7: Stand, and your average loss per $1 wagered is 48 cents. Hit, and the average loss decreases to 41 cents. You gain 7 cents per $1 wagered by hitting.
16 vs. 8: Average loss per dollar is 51 cents by standing, 45 cents by hitting. Hitting gains you 6 cents per $1.
16 vs. 9: Average loss per dollar is 54 cents if you stand, 50 cents if you hit. Hitting gains you 4 cents per $1.
16 vs. 10: This is nearly a tossup hand, especially if your 16 consists of 9-7. If you have 10-6, average loss per $1 is 54.1 cents if you stand, 53.5 cents if you hit. With 9-7, it’s 53.7 cents if you hit, 53.5 if you stand. The difference narrows from 0.6 cents on 10-6 to 0.2 cents on 9-7.
16 vs. Ace: Average loss per dollar is 59 cents if you stand, 54 cents if you hit. Hitting gains you 5 cents per $1.
On all your two-card hard 16s, you gain by hitting whenever the dealer has 7 or higher, but the gain is biggest when the dealer has a 7 up.
There are some hands of three or more cards where it’s a better play to stand on 16 vs. 10, but that gets us into composition-dependent strategies — a topic for another time.
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